Expected Value and Betting Review Sheet
Expected value and betting review sheet covering fair price, odds, implied probability, utility, bankroll, stopping, and scoring rules.
Candidates consolidating expected value and betting prep before interviews.
Fair price
For a toy risk-neutral payoff, fair price starts with expected payoff. State costs and assumptions.
Odds and implied probability
Convert prices or odds into implied probabilities before comparing them with your probability estimate.
Utility and bankroll
Positive EV is not the whole decision when bankroll, drawdown, utility, or ruin risk matters.
Stopping and repetition
For repeated or stopping games, compare current value with continuation value and check path constraints.
Scoring forecasts
When probability forecasts are scored, optimize expected score and calibration, not just one realized outcome.
Final checks
Before answering, verify net payoff signs, probabilities, costs, assumptions, and whether the prompt asks for price or choice.
Practice the pattern
Use the LeetQuidity curriculum and calibration to turn this topic into a focused practice plan.