Market Making Estimation Game Interview
Market making estimation game interview guide for quoting markets on uncertain quantities using estimates, ranges, and update discipline.
Candidates facing Fermi-style or estimate-a-number markets.
Estimate before quoting
In an estimation market, the fair value starts as your best estimate of the unknown quantity. The quote then expresses uncertainty around that estimate.
Use a defensible range
A range is often more honest than a false-precise point estimate. Use a low, base, and high case to decide spread width.
Concrete example
If you estimate a quantity around 1,000 but plausible values run from 800 to 1,300, a very tight 990 at 1,010 quote is probably unjustified.
Update with clues
If the interviewer gives a clue, revise the estimate and decide whether uncertainty narrowed or widened.
Avoid overprecision
A confident-sounding exact number is weaker than an estimate with clear assumptions and a quote that reflects uncertainty.
Common mistakes
Candidates often anchor on the first estimate and never update. Estimation games reward visible revision.
Practice the pattern
Use the LeetQuidity curriculum and calibration to turn this topic into a focused practice plan.